A Liberal
Dose
November 17,
2022
Troy D.
Smith
“Taking a
deep breath after the midterms”
Well, that went better than I expected it to.
As of this writing (Sunday), Democrats held onto the
Senate and may actually pick up a seat in a few weeks if Hershel Walker loses
in Georgia; the ballyhooed “red wave” Republicans were predicting for the House
fell through, and at this point it is not even guaranteed they will take it at
all. It’s down to the wire, and if they do it will only be by a handful of
seats.
Also at this point, my worst-case scenarios have not
materialized. I was fearful that Trumpy, election-denying candidates would win secretary
of state races in swing states, putting them in a position to overturn
legitimate voting results in those states in 2024. I was fearful that
election-deniers in general would sweep into power all over the place, taking
us one major step closer to the collapse of democracy, which rests on the
assumption people who lose elections will admit it and go home. Almost half of
the roughly 300 election-deniers running for office lost -including all those
swing-state secretary of state candidates. With a handful of exceptions (such
as J.D. Vance in Ohio), almost every candidate Trump had strongly endorsed
lost, leading some to believe that the public is getting tired of Donald J.
My other fear was that there would be a huge uptick in
political violence after the election. That hasn’t materialized, but it’s only
been five days. I hope it does not. As I have been saying on here, I feel like
we’ve been sitting on an increasingly combustible tinder-box for the last seven
years. So far it seems like most of the Republicans who lost actually admitted
it and conceded -which has always been a fundamental aspect of American public
life, but after a few years of Trump feels like the good old days from some
distant, bygone era.
I’ve seen multiple headlines stating that GOP party
leaders blame Trump, and people’s fatigue with him and his wacky supporters,
for them having one of the worst midterm performances in decades. There is
speculation they are finally willing to risk his displeasure by shifting their
future support to a possible presidential candidate with less baggage, namely
Ron DeSantis. Perhaps feeling threatened, Trump has been escalating his online
attacks against (as he calls him) “Ron DeSanctimonious.” DeSantis is a mixed
bag. On one hand, he is not as mentally unstable, volatile, and openly corrupt
as Trump -he seems less likely to order a military coup or start a nuclear war
if someone made fun of his hair. On the other hand, he has all the worst and
most dangerous policy goals of Trump and might be more competent at achieving
them.
Here’s my take, at least for now. Donald Trump has
been prematurely declared politically dead a dozen times, and every time it has
proven to be wishful thinking (on the part of progressives and mainstream
conservatives alike). Nothing that has happened in the last week changes the
fact that a solid 30% or so of the American public are hardcore Trumpers no
matter what he says or does. There is something about him (judge for yourself
what it is) that speaks to them in a way normal politicians do not, and I don’t
see them shifting their allegiance because party leaders say they ought to.
I believe Trump will run for the nomination -to stay
out of jail as much as anything -and win it. DeSantis will fall by the wayside
as surely as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio did. And, once that happens, a Democratic
win is guaranteed -because there is another 70% of the American public, half of
whom despise Trump and another chunk of whom are finally getting embarrassed by
him or, at least, tired of his drama. And once he loses, we will be right back
to “Big Steal” conspiracy theories.
--Troy D.
Smith, a White County native, is a novelist and a history professor at
Tennessee Tech. His words do not necessarily represent TTU.
You can find all previous entries in this weekly column HERE
A list of other historical essays that have appeared on this blog can be found HERE
Author's website: www.troyduanesmith.com
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